Labour will need ‘record swing’ to win majority at next election | UK News

A new electoral analysis has revealed that the Labour Party would need a ‘record swing’ in votes to win a majority at the next election.

It comes as the Tory Party was warned they could ‘face oblivion’ at the polls after a damning survey revealed Chancellor Jeremy Hunt and 11 cabinet ministers could lose their seats.

Labour is thought to be on course for a phenomenal victory similar to Labour’s 1997 success, which saw Tony Blair win overwhelmingly.

Now, an analysis of new constituency boundaries suggests that Labour needs a swing of 12.7% to win by a ‘small majority’.

The newly drawn constituency lines are expected to have an impact on local MP elections and overall party elections.

Yesterday, a YouGov survey of 14,000 people indicated Prime Minister Rishi Sunak could cling on to as few as 169 seats – with rival Sir Keir Starmer walking into Number 10 with 385.

And every so-called ‘red wall’ seat won by Boris Johnson in 2019 could be lost, according to ‘disastrous’ data from the poll.

Defence Secretary Grant Shapps, together with Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt and Attorney General Victoria Prentis, should also brace themselves for election defeat.

Some 96 losses could hinge on voters switching support to Reform UK, the YouGov research found – which will be the crucial difference between a Labour majority and a hung parliament.

But despite being a thorn in the side of the Conservatives, the right-wing group is not expected to pick up a single seat.

The Scottish National Party is also predicted to lose almost half of its seats, retaining just 25 of its MPs, the Scotsman reports, but it would narrowly remain the largest party in Scotland.

The research was commissioned by a group of Tory donors working alongside former chief Brexit negotiator, Lord Frost.

Get in touch with our news team by emailing us at webnews@metro.co.uk.

For more stories like this, check our news page.

MORE : Council spent £7,600 on heated toilet seats with oscillating water jets

MORE : How Ukrainian commando in wetsuit armed with a pistol gunned down Russian troops

MORE : Cameron says government was left with ‘no choice’ but to strike Houthis

This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.